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Not being part of the MMO crowd, I didn't know what WAR is/was until I started googling. Something to keep in mind for future articles, perhaps...
Another source of numbers is http://www.warcraftrealms.com/ The news articles on concurrency are pretty straightforward, easier to read than the data themselves, and they agree with your findings, that although a lot of WotLK discs have sold and that there are a lot of people playing WoW, but the total declines in the spring and recovers in the winter, since TBC came out. The WoW market may be pretty well saturated, as it's grown slowly these last two years.
Warcraftrealms has started collecting Warhammer census data (to the dismay of certain users, for some reason). Should be interesting to see what can be learned from those.